Business survival, and the conditional number that applies to you
Last updated
Quick Answer
Conditional survival is the number that applies to an acquirer: 69.5% of establishments reaching five years reach ten, and 76.1% of those reaching ten reach fifteen.1,2
What it is
BLS Business Employment Dynamics data through March 2025 — recovered via the Internet Archive, because the agency's own domain returns 403 to automated retrieval. Five-year survival across cohorts runs roughly 50 to 52 percent and ten-year survival around 35 percent, but those are unconditional rates measured from birth.1,2
Operational context
What good looks like
Why It Matters
An acquirer buys a business that has already cleared the years those rates are mostly measuring. Using the unconditional figure to describe an established company overstates the base rate risk and understates the specific risk, which is the transition itself — and no competitor we found uses the conditional framing.1
Term Family
Related concepts
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Business survival, and the conditional number that applies to you in venture capital?
BLS Business Employment Dynamics data through March 2025 — recovered via the Internet Archive, because the agency's own domain returns 403 to automated retrieval.
Why is Business survival, and the conditional number that applies to you important for startups?
Understanding Business survival, and the conditional number that applies to you is critical for founders navigating the fundraising process. It directly impacts deal terms, valuation, and the relationship between founders and investors.
Sources & References
- 1.A1-04 — BLS BED Table 7, establishment survival thru Mar 2025, via WaybackBLS BED Table 7, establishment survival thru Mar 2025, via WaybackGov / statistical primary(Conditional survival is the number that applies to an acquirer: 69.5% of establishments reaching five years reach ten, and 76.1% of those reaching ten reach fifteen.)primary · A1 · benchmark-integrity · benchmark
- 2.A1-01 — SBA Advocacy, FAQ About Small Business, Feb 2026 editionSBA Advocacy, FAQ About Small Business, Feb 2026 editionGov / statistical primary(Conditional survival is the number that applies to an acquirer: 69.5% of establishments reaching five years reach ten, and 76.1% of those reaching ten reach fifteen.)primary · A1 · benchmark-integrity · benchmark
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